Because of at the moment, the alternate fee of the ruble in opposition to the greenback has not modified. On the identical time, the ruble strengthened nearly all through the day, at its peak it went to the area of 60.7 rubles. Thus, the dollar-ruble pair managed to interrupt the 61 mark, when approaching the one which had beforehand repeatedly appeared.
Solely within the final three minutes of buying and selling, when market liquidity fell sharply, the speed jumped to yesterday’s closing stage of 61 rubles. each greenback. Probably, some massive speculators “transfer” the ruble, pursuing their targets, which aren’t very clear to the market. On the identical time, at 19:00 Moscow time, 60.05 rubles got for the greenback on Western foreign exchange websites.
The explanation for the strengthening of the Russian forex is the revival of commodity prices, in addition to the anticipated victory of the Republicans within the US mid-term elections, after which many political analysts count on the strain on Russia to lower.
The final time the ruble was so costly was October 7. From the standpoint of technical evaluation, the breakdown of two native helps – 61.2-61.3 and 61 rubles. per greenback – paving the way in which for the ruble to storm the “spherical” mark of 60 rubles. each greenback. However analysts nonetheless do probably not imagine in a large strengthening of the Russian forex.
“The important thing bar of 61 per US greenback is now beneath the management of USD/RUB sellers. And now the greenback has to struggle again. There isn’t any expectation for the ruble to unite on this place, and the native weak point of the greenback might quickly finish with an energetic restoration of the forex: within the medium time period, already this month, we nonetheless take into account a average weakening of the ruble. and the motion of the US greenback by 65 rubles.” – believes Mikhail Zeltser from BCS World of Investments.
Dmitry Postolenko, head of the mounted earnings administration division at Pervaya Administration Firm, principally agrees with him: “The ruble’s medium-term prospects haven’t modified. The nationwide forex has extra conditions for a gradual weakening as a result of import development, pro-inflationary dangers and rising rates of interest within the international market.”
The truth is, “parallel” imports are gaining momentum, some Western corporations are returning to Russia instantly or by means of intermediaries. Demand for the forex guarantees to develop as a result of have to replenish shares by retailers forward of New Yr gross sales.
However development in exporters’ overseas alternate earnings from native will increase in uncooked materials costs will play within the ruble’s favor. Subsequent week, exporters might enhance overseas forex gross sales in preparation for the tax interval. It’s doable that Lukoil and Rosneft will eliminate a part of their overseas alternate reserves within the coming weeks to gather rubles for upcoming dividend funds on their shares.
Lastly, forex speculators can actively enter the method, which can more than likely play for the strengthening of the ruble within the coming days, each as a result of technical elements and to win again the victory of the Republicans in the USA. A number of telegram channels, citing exit polling knowledge, heralded a assured victory for the Republicans.
The latter issue additionally supported the Russian inventory market, which started to appropriate within the morning, dropping a share of its capitalization at its peak, however closed with a lack of solely 0.07% on the finish of buying and selling.
Of the extremely liquid shares, VTB confirmed the strongest acquire of two.9%. Within the final two classes of speedy development of the Moscow Inventory Trade Index, buyers by some means forgot about VTB, and at the moment, having seen it lag behind the market, they started to actively take it.
Rosneft corrected the strongest – by 1.4%. Worse than the market are shares of ferrous metallurgists, in addition to Sberbank. Do not forget that this writer’s paper was among the many development leaders for the final two days. Thus, the pattern of extra energetic profit-taking on essentially the most superior securities and “undervalued” choice stays.
Like yesterday, the outsider of the day was Detsky Mir, on paper they gained again the corporate’s intention to reorganize into an LLC. Homeowners of securities have no idea what to do: whether or not to dump the inventory now, after a 30% drop in two days, or anticipate a proposal to purchase it again. Analysts additionally don’t present clear suggestions on this subject.
Usually, redemption of manufacturing at the moment signifies the preservation of the temper for the expansion of the Moscow Inventory Trade Index.